Systematic backtest, 1990–2025 · Russell 1000 universe · commissions included · unaudited
For comparison, buy & hold of the Russell 1000 over the same period returned ~8.8% per year with a deeper −56.9% maximum drawdown.
Log scale. Compounded from the strategy's actual month-by-month returns. The curve compounds steeply across these 36 years — but only by sitting through the drawdowns below.
Decline from each new equity high, month-end. The deepest month-end level shown is about −31%; measured daily, the worst peak-to-trough reached −41% around the dot-com unwind — the strategy was underwater for roughly 48 months before making a new high.
| 1990 | -6.2% |
| 1991 | +40.8% |
| 1992 | +13.7% |
| 1993 | +19.8% |
| 1994 | +8.3% |
| 1995 | +68.1% |
| 1996 | +7.5% |
| 1997 | +58.8% |
| 1998 | +27.5% |
| 1999 | +42.5% |
| 2000 | -5.2% |
| 2001 | -3.6% |
| 2002 | +6.6% |
| 2003 | +25.3% |
| 2004 | +27.7% |
| 2005 | +8.8% |
| 2006 | +18.7% |
| 2007 | -11.5% |
| 2008 | +34.7% |
| 2009 | +18.8% |
| 2010 | +26.7% |
| 2011 | +23.2% |
| 2012 | +13.8% |
| 2013 | +37.1% |
| 2014 | -3.4% |
| 2015 | -5.0% |
| 2016 | +17.9% |
| 2017 | +8.8% |
| 2018 | -7.8% |
| 2019 | +13.5% |
| 2020 | +47.8% |
| 2021 | +18.7% |
| 2022 | -8.0% |
| 2023 | +7.6% |
| 2024 | +45.5% |
| 2025 | +5.5% |
Over 36 years the strategy was profitable in 28 years and lost money in 8. The average year returned about +16.6%, but individual years ranged from −11.5% to +68%.
The returns are real, and so is the pain to get them. You have to be willing to watch the account fall ~40% and keep following the signals. Most people can't — which is part of why the edge persists.
This is a concentrated, all-equity strategy. A −41% drawdown means the account lost about 41% of its value at the worst point — on paper, for months — before recovering. Only commit money you can leave invested through that, and only size positions you can stomach seeing cut in half. Past performance is not a promise of future results; future drawdowns can be larger.
This report reflects a historical backtest of the Daily MR strategy on Russell 1000 stocks, 1990–2025, with commissions included. It is the full strategy backtest and is distinct from the live performance dashboard on People's Trades, which tracks the model from 2020 at our published position sizing. Backtested results are hypothetical, were not achieved with real money, and do not account for all real-world frictions. People's Trades is not a financial advisor; nothing here is investment advice.