Systematic backtest, 1990–2025 · Russell 1000 universe · commissions included · unaudited
For comparison, buy & hold of the Russell 1000 over the same period returned ~8.8% per year with a −56% maximum drawdown. This strategy returned far more — but with a comparable, longer-lasting drawdown.
Log scale. Compounded from the strategy's actual month-by-month returns. The curve compounds steeply across these 36 years — the highest of the five strategies, and the wildest ride.
Decline from each new equity high, month-end. The worst drawdown was about −47%, and the strategy stayed underwater for roughly 50 months — over four years — before making a new high. Measured intraday the low would have been deeper still.
| 1990 | +0.0% |
| 1991 | +43.0% |
| 1992 | +22.9% |
| 1993 | +39.3% |
| 1994 | +14.1% |
| 1995 | +60.2% |
| 1996 | +53.6% |
| 1997 | +25.8% |
| 1998 | +148.6% |
| 1999 | +74.1% |
| 2000 | +13.0% |
| 2001 | +0.0% |
| 2002 | -6.2% |
| 2003 | +59.4% |
| 2004 | -8.3% |
| 2005 | -7.5% |
| 2006 | +1.8% |
| 2007 | +67.4% |
| 2008 | +0.0% |
| 2009 | +35.8% |
| 2010 | +16.3% |
| 2011 | +12.9% |
| 2012 | +46.3% |
| 2013 | +66.5% |
| 2014 | -12.2% |
| 2015 | +4.0% |
| 2016 | +47.0% |
| 2017 | +56.6% |
| 2018 | +51.2% |
| 2019 | -2.0% |
| 2020 | +70.8% |
| 2021 | -17.1% |
| 2022 | -20.3% |
| 2023 | -3.9% |
| 2024 | +33.6% |
| 2025 | -5.4% |
Over 36 years the strategy was profitable in 27 years and lost money in 9. Years ranged from -20% to an exceptional +149%.
A monthly rotational strategy: each month it concentrates into the market's strongest names. That delivers the highest long-run return of the five — but also the deepest, longest drawdowns. The 2021–2023 momentum unwind cost it nearly half its value and took more than four years to recover. You only earn the upside if you can sit through that.
This is the most volatile of the strategies — concentrated, all-equity, momentum-driven. A −47% drawdown means the account lost about 47% of its value at the worst — and stayed deep underwater for over four years before recovering. Only commit money you can leave fully invested through a multi-year decline, and only size it to a loss of that magnitude. Past performance is not a promise of future results; future drawdowns can be larger.
This report reflects a historical backtest of the Smart Fly Monthly strategy on Russell 1000 stocks, 1990–2025, with commissions included. Return and drawdown figures are derived from the backtest's monthly results; the maximum drawdown shown is month-end and the intraday figure would be somewhat deeper. It is the full strategy backtest and is distinct from the live performance dashboard on People's Trades, which tracks the model from 2020 at our published position sizing. Backtested results are hypothetical, were not achieved with real money, and do not account for all real-world frictions. People's Trades is not a financial advisor; nothing here is investment advice.