Systematic backtest, 1990–2025 · Russell 1000 universe · commissions included · unaudited
For comparison, buy & hold of the Russell 1000 over the same period returned ~8.8% per year with a deeper −56% maximum drawdown.
Log scale. Compounded from the strategy's actual month-by-month returns. The curve compounds steeply across these 36 years — but only by sitting through the drawdowns below.
Decline from each new equity high, month-end. The worst drawdown was about −47% and the strategy stayed underwater for roughly 66 months before reaching a new high. Measured intraday the low would have been deeper still.
| 1990 | -0.3% |
| 1991 | +89.1% |
| 1992 | -12.8% |
| 1993 | +17.5% |
| 1994 | +31.1% |
| 1995 | +123.2% |
| 1996 | +42.3% |
| 1997 | +36.4% |
| 1998 | +96.0% |
| 1999 | +248.2% |
| 2000 | -11.8% |
| 2001 | -7.3% |
| 2002 | -1.8% |
| 2003 | +51.2% |
| 2004 | +10.1% |
| 2005 | +7.5% |
| 2006 | -1.0% |
| 2007 | +28.4% |
| 2008 | +13.1% |
| 2009 | +23.6% |
| 2010 | +13.0% |
| 2011 | +10.2% |
| 2012 | +17.2% |
| 2013 | +101.6% |
| 2014 | -4.4% |
| 2015 | +15.2% |
| 2016 | +9.7% |
| 2017 | +25.6% |
| 2018 | +21.9% |
| 2019 | +9.5% |
| 2020 | +56.7% |
| 2021 | -15.9% |
| 2022 | -14.7% |
| 2023 | +7.0% |
| 2024 | +142.7% |
| 2025 | +23.8% |
Over 36 years the strategy was profitable in 27 years and lost money in 9. Years ranged from -16% to +248%.
A weekly rotational strategy — each week it holds the market's strongest names and drops the laggards. Returns come in clusters during strong trends; the cost is sharp drawdowns when leadership breaks.
This is a concentrated, all-equity strategy. A −47% drawdown means the account lost about 47% of its value at the worst point — on paper, for months — before recovering. Only commit money you can leave invested through that, and only size positions you can stomach seeing cut sharply. Past performance is not a promise of future results; future drawdowns can be larger.
This report reflects a historical backtest of the Smart Fly Weekly strategy on Russell 1000 stocks, 1990–2025, with commissions included. It is the full strategy backtest and is distinct from the live performance dashboard on People's Trades, which tracks the model from 2020 at our published position sizing. Backtested results are hypothetical, were not achieved with real money, and do not account for all real-world frictions. People's Trades is not a financial advisor; nothing here is investment advice.